When I was a kid, I always wondered why the letters from my grandparents started with precise details about the weather – the temperature highs and lows for the week, inches of precipitation, humidity, and sunny days or cloudy days. That was often followed by how many bushels per acre of wheat they’d harvested and its moisture content. To me, they were all odd details to share, but to my grandparents, they were life itself. As Kansas farmers, they ran a dairy and a poultry operation and grew wheat, milo, oats, and alfalfa for hay. Knowing about the weather meant the difference between success and failure.
Today, success and even survival are at risk. The 1,000-plus-page One Big Beautiful Bill Act includes deep cuts to funding and staff for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Weather Service. This week we’re taking a look at what that means to you as graziers, and to Americans across the country.
We’ve always known that weather forecasting was good for us
As a country, we’ve been working on forecasting since Ulysses S. Grant signed a joint resolution of Congress directing the Secretary of War to begin collecting weather data and issuing storm warnings. At the time, weather forecasting was still in its infancy, but the need was urgent: devastating storms were sinking ships, destroying crops, and catching communities by surprise. Congress recognized that systematic observation and forecasting could save lives and protect commerce.
Our first “weather scientists” were soldiers stationed around the country who sent regular reports on temperature, barometric pressure, wind, and precipitation to Washington, D.C. There, forecasts were compiled and distributed via telegraph. These early forecasts were primitive by today’s standards, but they laid the foundation for the nation’s first organized weather warning system.
The work has been passed from agency to agency. For a time, it was part of the Department of Agriculture. In 1940, it was moved to the Department of Commerce in acknowledgement of its importance to economic growth. In 1970, 100 years after its founding, it was renamed the National Weather Service under the newly formed National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Saving more lives and money
From the very beginning, the National Weather Service’s goal has been to protect life and property, and enhance the nation’s economy by providing timely and accurate weather forecasts and warnings. Thanks to our investment in the agency and the technology it has developed over the years, it has gotten better and better at this job. For example, one hundred years ago, the Tri-State Tornado roared across three states, and because there was no warning system, 695 people died. Today, forecasters can give 8 to 18 minutes’ notice before a twister hits, saving countless lives. As a result, the 2021 four-hour Quad-State Tornado, maybe the longest-lasting tornado ever, claimed only 88 lives. Likewise, hurricane forecasting has improved in the last twenty years. It’s estimated that improvements in hurricane forecasting and tracking have saved about $5 billion per storm since 2007.
But, beyond warnings of extreme weather events, the National Weather Service is critical to our daily lives. In an open letter about the 2026 proposed budget for NOAA and the NWS, former NWS directors wrote, “Airplanes can’t fly without weather observations and forecasts; ships crossing the oceans rely on storm forecasts to avoid the high seas; farmers rely on seasonal forecasts to plant, care for, and harvest the crops and livestock to feed us. Additionally, dam and reservoir operators rely on rainfall and snowfall forecasts to manage the water supply. Fishermen in the $320 billion commercial fisheries sector rely on forecasts to stay safe, as do tourism and recreational boating communities.”
For graziers, the agencies provide accurate forecasts when blizzards and heat waves are on the way, so you can move animals to shelter, provide extra feed or water, or prevent frostbite and death to calves, or heat stress during heat waves. Ask any hay producer, and you’re sure to hear about the importance of weather to cutting and baling quality hay. The multi-day, hour-by-hour forecasts help them pick the safest window for cutting and drying.
All that is at risk
According to Associated Press reports, after the Trump administration fired nearly 600 National Weather Service employees, almost half of its forecast offices were 20% below full staffing levels. What this means to us is less accurate forecasts and the potential that we won’t be warned or prepared for a severe weather event.
Seth Borentein, writing for the Associated Press describes what’s happening: “Some northern and central stations — such as Rapid City, South Dakota, with a 41.7% vacancy rate, Albany, New York, at 25%, Portland, Maine, at 26.1% and Omaha, Nebraska at 34.8% — have been so short-staffed that they’ve curtailed weather balloon launches that provide vital observations for accurate forecasts,” writes AP reporter Seth Borenstein. These are the instruments that provide data to computer models to give us everything from local frost predictions to storm warnings. No weather app on your phone works half as well without the balloons.
In addition, the mid-May tornadoes in Kentucky were in an area where the forecast office had to shut down 24/7 operations due to staffing shortages. They anticipated the severe weather event, so everyone stayed overnight, and they brought in staff from other offices, so they were able to get out warning. But that kind of effort is very difficult and won’t be possible every time. (Scientific American Science Quickly Podcast)
One weather service field office chief, who asked not to be identified because of fears of job loss, said the lack of technicians to fix radar and other needed equipment could be critically dangerous. “People are bending over backwards” to cope with the lack of staffing,” he said. “The burden is going to kill us.”
Funding cuts are also threatening the future of good forecasting. On one hand, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act keeps the National Weather Service’s budget at the 2025 level. Unfortunately, it also cuts the budget of its parent agency, NOAA, by 27%. NOAA is responsible for the weather satellites that help provide the information forecasters need, and the bill includes a $290 million cut to those satellites.
Would you pay $38 a year to get the best weather forecasting?
To cover the National Weather Service’s $1.4 billion budget, the average taxpayer pays $4 a year. Covering all the work done by NOAA costs another $34 at their current budget of $6.1 billion. Together, they deliver an estimated $100 billion in annual economic benefits.
People knew back in 1879 how important forecasting was. I think we know it today too.
If you think this is a reasonable expense for the return we receive, you might consider discussing it with your elected officials. NOAA and the National Weather Service have typically had strong bipartisan support because of the importance of what they do for the American people. Some are already concerned about these changes, and hearing from you might help them make different choices. Now is an especially good time to get in touch as they return to work to make some final changes to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act before sending it on to the Senate. Here’s a link to help you get the contact information for your representatives.
Read More
https://apnews.com/article/doge-weather-cuts-tornado-dangerous-staff-warnings-aa7db3e0d0009d99c143742ab722c40a
Weather balloon tour – https://www.weather.gov/rev/upperair
https://www.scientificamerican.com/podcast/episode/the-national-weather-service-is-understaffed-and-underfunded-heres-why-that/
https://www.surfrider.org/news/trump-administrations-2026-budget-calls-for-drastic-cuts-at-noaa-and-the-epa
https://www.vox.com/climate/414864/hurricane-season-is-here-noaa-is-in-shambles-what-could-go-wrong
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/quad-state-tornado-may-be-longest-lasting-ever/
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-trumps-national-weather-service-cuts-could-cost-lives/
https://www.reed.senate.gov/news/releases/disaster-alert-reed-warns-trumps-efforts-to-dismantle-noaa-threatens-economy-people-and-environment
