The Forecast Grows Dark: the loss of vital funding and functions of NOAA and the National Weather Service

On July 4, 2025, President Trump signed a budget bill that does more than slash spending. It dismantles the foundation of America’s weather forecasting system. For farmers, ranchers, and rural communities whose lives and work change with the weather, the impact will be immediate and lasting. The bill effectively guts the scientific research backbone of the National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), stripping away the research, data, and forecasting tools that make modern weather prediction possible.

Why Weather Research Matters

At the heart of NOAA’s predictive power lies the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR). OAR funds and conducts the scientific research that turns raw data into actionable forecasts. From climate trends that affect long-term planning to storm-scale weather models that provide early warnings, OAR is essential. But OAR has been eliminated in this budget.

Federal funding for the Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) is also being eliminated. This is a network of 11 regional associations that collect and deliver real-time oceanic and coastal data. IOOS is crucial for forecasting hurricanes, understanding sea-level rise, and helping coastal farmers and aquaculture producers adapt to changing conditions.

The National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL), along with its university-based partner, the Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations (CIWRO), is being defunded. These teams have led the way in tornado, hail, and flash flood research, developing tools like Doppler radar interpretation and storm-scale prediction models. Their work has saved lives and livelihoods across the country.

Without these institutions, we lose not just data, but innovation. Research into how droughts form, how storms evolve, and how our climate is shifting will come to a halt. Forecasting will stagnate, leaving farmers and ranchers with fewer tools to plan or respond.

The Bigger Picture: The Three-Legged Stool of Weather Forecasting

Weather forecasting stands on three essential legs:

1. Observation – Data from satellites, weather balloons, radar, and surface stations.
2. Research and Modeling – Scientific analysis to build accurate models from that data.
3. Communication – 24/7 staffing and alerts from trained meteorologists to convey risks to the public.

This budget kicks out all three legs:

– Observations are being cut, with staff shortages halting weather balloon launches that provide daily data for forecasting models, and eliminating access to key satellite data.
– Research that improves our forecasting ability is being gutted, with OAR, NSSL, CIWRO, and IOOS all defunded or shut down.
– Communication is weakened, as local NWS offices lose overnight staff and trained experts are reassigned. A current example of this is the concern about the flash flood warnings in Kerr County, Texas. The NWS staffer responsible for coordinating warnings with local emergency responders had left as part of the DOGE efforts to cut staffing.

With these legs gone, our ability to forecast becomes hobbled. That means more missed warnings, more lives at risk, and more damage that could have been prevented.

DMSP: A Critical Eye in the Sky, Gone

Among the most troubling changes is the termination of U.S. access to the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) scheduled for July 31, 2025. This Cold War-era system still provides valuable data on cloud cover, atmospheric moisture, and sea surface temperatures—data that underpins many public weather models.

The rationale? The satellites are aging, and the administration claims the U.S. can rely on commercial providers or foreign partners. But this ignores a fundamental reality: those systems either don’t yet exist, are not publicly accessible, or cannot meet the same standards.

The loss of DMSP will degrade forecasts for hurricanes, winter storms, and global agricultural planning, especially in rural areas where local data is already sparse.

Why This Is Happening: The Project 2025 Agenda

These cuts didn’t come out of nowhere. They align closely with the goals of Project 2025, the Heritage Foundation-led blueprint for the next conservative presidency. Project 2025 characterizes NOAA and the NWS as bloated, overly focused on climate science, and resistant to privatization. Its authors argue that weather forecasting should rely more on private industry and less on government science.

In other words, the July 4 bill is the practical implementation of Project 2025’s ideology: dismantle public research infrastructure and hand over responsibility to the market. The problem with that is private companies rely on the very government data that is now being eliminated. Without that foundation, everyone—farmers, pilots, emergency managers, families—gets less reliable, less equitable forecasts.

What We Lose

These changes aren’t just numbers on a budget line. They are an attack on the scientific capacity that underpins safety, security, and food production in America. It isn’t waste. It’s the work that allows us to:

– Warn a rancher in Oklahoma about a hailstorm two hours before it hits.
– Help a farmer in Iowa know when to plant to avoid a late frost.
– Track hurricane development in the Gulf days before it makes landfall.
– Anticipate drought months in advance and adapt pasture use accordingly.

We are not just defunding agencies. We are defunding foresight itself.

But It’s Not Too Late To Turn Back

Even though the bill has been signed into law, there’s still a window to influence how it’s implemented—and to push for reversals or restorations in upcoming legislation. Here’s how:

Appropriations and Implementation Are Still Ongoing

Signing a budget bill sets broad funding levels, but Congress still controls the details through appropriations bills. They decide how the money gets spent within agencies. That means line items like funding for specific NOAA or NWS programs could still be negotiated, restored, or redirected.

Agency Restructuring Takes Time

Shutting down entire research labs, canceling grants, or transferring programs (like moving the Space Weather Prediction Center to DHS) requires months of planning, personnel changes, and legal review. Public pressure can delay, soften, or even halt some of these moves.

Congress Can Pass Supplemental Bills

If enough public pressure builds, Congress can pass supplemental appropriations to restore specific programs. This has happened before in response to natural disasters, scientific community backlash, or constituent advocacy.

Upcoming Farm Bill and Disaster Relief Legislation Offer Leverage

Both the Farm Bill and climate disaster relief packages often include funding for weather, climate, and forecasting infrastructure. Restoring funding to NOAA/NWS through those vehicles is a real possibility—if enough stakeholders speak up.

Here’s What You Can Do

Farmers, ranchers, and rural communities have long depended on the trustworthiness of the National Weather Service and NOAA. It’s time to raise our voices before the skies grow even darker.

1. Call your Senators and Representatives. Urge them to reverse cuts to NOAA, NWS, and the programs your community relies on. Emphasize the agricultural and safety consequences. Find your representative or Senator here or by calling 202-224-3121. Download this PDF with call scripts and a sample email.

2. Organize statements from farm organizations, water districts, emergency managers, and state climatologists. These voices carry weight.

3. Ask your state ag department or land-grant university to speak up. Many are direct partners in CIWRO, IOOS, and Sea Grant programs.

4. Support amendments to appropriations bills that restore critical programs.

5. Document real-world impacts: Missed weather alerts, lost local forecasting staff, or degraded ag info—these stories can shift political momentum.

With the weather and forecasting on everyone’s minds this week, now is an important opportunity to remind elected officials of the importance of the work that NOAA and the National Weather Service do.